LEARNODDS & PROBABILITY

What Does No-Vig Mean?

Both sides of a market include a bookmaker’s margin. Remove it — de-vig the line — and the market’s real opinion appears.

2 MIN READ · BETTORWISE RESEARCH · EXAMPLES MARKED AS ILLUSTRATIVE

Take a prop priced Over −120 / Under −102. The implied probabilities are 54.55% and 50.49% — 105.04% combined. The 5.04 points of overlap are margin, not opinion.

Removing the margin

Divide each side by the total: 54.55 / 105.04 = 51.9%, and 50.49 / 105.04 = 48.1%. That’s the no-vig market — a fair probability you can compare to a model.

OVER −120 (54.55%) · UNDER −102 (50.49%) → NO-VIG: 51.9% / 48.1%

Why it matters

A no-vig consensus across several books is the closest public approximation of what the market believes. It’s the baseline Bettorwise measures model–market gaps against.

RELATED READING

01How Implied Probability Works

A price is a probability in disguise. Implied probability is the break-even rate hidden in the odds — the common language for comparing books, models and markets.

ODDS & PROBABILITY · 2 MIN02Model Probability vs Sportsbook Probability

Market probability and model probability answer different questions. The gap between them is where analysis begins.

MODELS · 2 MIN03How Bettorwise Grades a Signal

A Signal is the gap between model probability and no-vig market consensus. Grades scale with the gap — and most lines get a PASS.

MODELS · 2 MIN

Compare the market yourself.

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