How Implied Probability Works

Implied probability converts odds into the win rate a bet needs to break even. For negative odds, divide the stake by the total return: −120 → 120/220 = 54.5%. For positive odds, divide 100 by the total return: +180 → 100/280 = 35.7%.

It’s a hurdle, not a forecast

A price of −120 doesn’t mean the book thinks the event happens 54.5% of the time. It means you need it to happen 54.5% of the time. The book prices risk on both sides; the bettor prices the outcome.

The common language

Once every price is a percentage, everything becomes comparable: two books, a book and a model, an opening line and a close. Bettorwise converts every price it records into implied probability first.