LEARNEXPECTED VALUE & MARKETS

What Is Expected Value in Sports Betting?

Expected value is the arithmetic answer to “Is this price worth it?” — probability times payoff, minus risk.

2 MIN READ · BETTORWISE RESEARCH · EXAMPLES MARKED AS ILLUSTRATIVE

Expected value multiplies each outcome by its probability. Bet $122 to win $100 at −122, with a 58.9% chance of winning: EV = 0.589 × $100 − 0.411 × $122 = +$8.76. Per dollar risked, about +7.2%.

P 58.9% · PRICE −122 → EV ≈ +7.2% OF RISK (ILLUSTRATIVE)

EV needs a probability you can defend

The market gives you one for free — its own implied probability. Beating it requires an independent estimate: a model. The size of your disagreement with the price is the size of your edge.

One bet proves nothing

EV is a long-run property. A +7% edge still loses that bet 41% of the time. Expected value is why process — repeated positive-EV decisions — matters more than any single result.

RELATED READING

01How Implied Probability Works

A price is a probability in disguise. Implied probability is the break-even rate hidden in the odds — the common language for comparing books, models and markets.

ODDS & PROBABILITY · 2 MIN02Model Probability vs Sportsbook Probability

Market probability and model probability answer different questions. The gap between them is where analysis begins.

MODELS · 2 MIN03Why a Good Model Still Loses Bets

Positive expected value loses often. Variance doesn’t care about your edge.

MODELS · 2 MIN

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