LEARNPLAYER PROPS

What Does a Player Prop Hit Rate Actually Tell You?

A hit rate tells you what happened. Whether it was worth paying for depends entirely on the price.

2 MIN READ · BETTORWISE RESEARCH · EXAMPLES MARKED AS ILLUSTRATIVE

“He’s 7-for-10 over this line.” At what price? 7-of-10 is 70%. At −110 that’s a strong profit; at −150 the break-even is 60% and you’re barely clear; at −200 you’re losing money while winning bets.

HIT RATE 70% · BREAK-EVEN AT −110 = 52.4% · AT −200 = 66.7% (ILLUSTRATIVE)

Rates need denominators

A hit rate over 10 games is one coin’s worth of evidence. Over a season it starts to mean something — if the line, the minutes and the role stayed constant. They usually didn’t.

A rate is not a forecast

Hit rates describe a past sample at past prices. A model’s job is the next game, at today’s price. Bettorwise keeps those questions separate.

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Compare the market yourself.

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